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☆ Moody's Analytics: The Japanese economy is 'not looking too well'
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMoody's Analytics: The Japanese economy is 'not looking too well'Stefan Angrick, associate director at Moody's Analytics, says Japan's "real economy has been struggling."

Persons: Stefan Angrick

"Given the absence of a growth engine, it wouldn't surprise me if the Japanese economy contracted again in the current quarter. The risk of Japan falling into recession cannot be ruled out," said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute. "The weak growth and the spectre of slowing inflation could delay the BOJ's exit from negative interest rates," he said. Japan’s economy contracts in the third quarterThe weak reading reflects lacklustre consumption and capital expenditure, dashing policymakers' hopes for a post-pandemic rebound in domestic activity to offset weaker external demand from China and elsewhere. He said better net exports, underpinned by car shipments and tourism, helped lift growth in the second quarter, belying the weakness in domestic demand.

Persons: Androniki, Takeshi Minami, Stefan Angrick, Angrick, Fumio Kishida, Tetsushi Kajimoto, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Norinchukin Research, Gross, Moody's, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, TOKYO, China

China detained the executive, named in several media reports as Hiroshi Nishiyama, on suspicion of espionage in March, and he was formally arrested last month. Japan's then foreign minister protested the executive's detention with his Chinese counterpart on a visit to Beijing in April. China's foreign ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Half the respondents in a recent survey of Japanese companies doing business in China said they would cut investments this year. It's a very difficult point in time to be navigating that as a decision maker, in business or politics," he said.

Persons: Fumio Kishida, Xi Jinping, Rahm Emanuel, Hiroshi Nishiyama, Japan's, Xi, Masashi Mizobuchi, Nishiyama, Takeshi Niinami, Niinami, Stefan Angrick, Yukiko Toyoda, Kiyoshi Takenaka, John Geddie, Sakura Murakami, Francis Tang, Laurie Chen, Antoni Slodkowski, Andrew Silver, Lincoln Organizations: Economic Cooperation, Kyodo, drugmaker Astellas Pharma, APEC, Reuters, Japanese Chamber of Commerce, Japan Association of Corporate, Suntory, Moody's Analytics, Thomson Locations: Asia, Bangkok, Thailand, TOKYO, BEIJING, China, San Francisco, Tokyo, U.S, Japan, Beijing, officialdom, Shanghai

Even as the import ban kicked in, tables were filled at Japanese restaurant Fumi in Hong Kong on August 24, 2023. Kathleen Magramo/CNNHours before China’s announcement, the Asian financial center of Hong Kong – a semi-autonomous Chinese city – imposed its own ban on aquatic product imports from 10 Japanese regions including Tokyo and Fukushima. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has reportedly “strongly” requested via diplomatic channels that China “immediately overturn” the ban. Still, Fei too thought that the bans from China and Hong Kong would have limited impact on Japanese trade. Consequently, even considering the reputational damage for Japanese seafood products, Japan’s overall exports will not be materially undermined,” Fei said.

Persons: “ It’s, ”, Thomason Ng, Fumi’s, “, Kathleen Magramo, Japan’s, Masanobu Sakamoto, Fumio Kishida, ” Sakamoto, –, Nigel Marks, there’s, CNN “ It’s, ” Marks, David Krofcheck, ” Krofcheck, Stefan Angrick, Angrick, That’s, China “, Fei Xue, Fei, ” Fei, restaurateurs, Hong Kong’s, Cara Man, we’ll Organizations: CNN, Hong Kong’s, East China, Fisherman’s Cooperative Association, ” “ Fishermen, Japanese, Tokyo Electric Power Company, TEPCO, Curtin University, University of Auckland, World Health Organization, Moody’s, Economist Intelligence Unit, “ Seafood Locations: Hong, Hong Kong’s Central, Fumi, Asia, Japan, China, Fukushima, Hong Kong, Tokyo, Weibo, East, Beijing, Australia, Ocean, South Korea, Taiwan, New Zealand, Japanese, Central, Japan’s Hokkaido, Kyushu, Kagoshima, Norway, Canada

Some market players bet the central bank could widen the allowance band set around its yield target to arrest market distortions caused by its heavy bond buying. With the 10-year yield moving stably below the 0.5% yield cap, however, many BOJ policymakers see no imminent need to take fresh steps against the side-effects of YCC, the sources said. Notwithstanding abrupt moves in the bonds and yen, the BOJ is likely to make no changes to its policy framework next week, they said. "We expect the BOJ will keep major policy levers unchanged next week," said Stefan Angrick, senior economist at Moody's Analytics. More than three-quarters of economists polled by Reuters said they expect the BOJ to keep policy steady including its yield control scheme next week.

Persons: Shinichi Uchida's, Kazuo Ueda's, Stefan Angrick, Leika Kihara, Takahiko Wada, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of Japan, Moody's, Reuters, Thomson Locations: BOJ, TOKYO

Core consumer inflation has now stayed above the central bank's 2% target for 14 straight months, casting doubt on its view the recent cost-driven inflation will prove temporary. "As the pass-through of rising costs runs its course, core consumer inflation will peak around summer," said Ryosuke Katagi, market economist at Mizuho Securities. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has stressed the need to keep loose policy until inflation is sustainably around 2% and accompanied by wage hikes. He has also said core consumer inflation will slow back below 2% by September or October, though sustained price rises have put that view into some doubt. In its last projections made in April, the BOJ expected core consumer inflation to hit 1.8% in the current fiscal year ending in March 2024.

Persons: Ryosuke, Stefan Angrick, Kazuo Ueda, Leika Kihara, Takahiko Wada, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: Mizuho Securities, Bank of Japan, Reuters, Moody's, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Japan's, Tokyo

☆ Bank of Japan had 'lots of reasons' to keep monetary policy unchanged, says Moody’s
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBank of Japan had 'lots of reasons' to keep monetary policy unchanged, says Moody’sStefan Angrick of Moody's Analytics cites "choppy" economic data as one of the reasons.

☆ Living standards are still falling in Japan. That’s a recipe for more stagnation
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Michelle Toh | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Adjusted for inflation, wages slipped 2.6% in February, compared to the same month a year earlier, according to government data released last week. That means it’ll be tough for Ueda to hike interest rates, especially as living standards aren’t rising either. The issue of stagnant wages could improve this year, as companies heed the call to raise salaries in response to inflation. Workers in Japan have been grappling with stagnant wages, leading to a government push for businesses to hike pay. But in Japan, it’s high enough to feel uncomfortable, given stagnant wage growth, according to Angrick.

☆ Bank of Japan will probably maintain monetary easing, but with a 'twist,' says Moody's
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBank of Japan will probably maintain monetary easing, but with a 'twist,' says Moody'sStefan Angrick of Moody's Analytics says the Bank of Japan will probably dial back on yield curve control, and adds that dropping the policy altogether is a "logical option."

☆ Kazuo Ueda nominated to lead Japan's central bank in possible move away from ultra-easy policy
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Hong Kong CNN —The Japanese government has nominated Kazuo Ueda to lead its central bank, in a surprise move that could pave the way for the country to wind down its ultra-loose monetary policy. Accommodative is a term used to describe monetary policy that adjusts to adverse market conditions and usually involves keeping interest rates low to spur growth and employment. As part of that program, the central bank targeted some short-term interest rates at an ultra-dovish minus 0.1% and aimed for 10-year government bond yields around 0%. But as prices rose and interest rates elsewhere went up, pressure has grown on the BOJ to wind down YCC. But Kuroda later dismissed a near-term exit from his ultra-loose monetary policy.

Last month, he called on companies to hike pay at a level above inflation, with some already heeding the call. Last month, Japan recorded its biggest drop in earnings, once inflation is taken into account, in nearly a decade. A changing job marketExperts say Japan’s wages have also suffered because it lags in another metric: its productivity rate. Hideya Tokiyoshi, a teacher in Japan, told CNN he had barely seen his salary go up over the last 30 years. “If some of the biggest companies in Japan raise wages, many other firms will follow,” if only to stay competitive, said Yamaguchi.

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